Estimating underreporting of leprosy in Brazil using a Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy remains concentrated among the poorest communities in low-and middle-income countries and it is one of the primary infectious causes of disability. Although there have been increasing advances in leprosy surveillance worldwide, leprosy underreporting is still common and can hinder decision-making regarding the distribution of financial and health resources and thereby limit the effectiveness of interventions. In this study, we estimated the proportion of unreported cases of leprosy in Brazilian microregions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data collected between 2007 to 2015 from each of the 557 Brazilian microregions, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical model that used the presence of grade 2 leprosy-related physical disabilities as a direct indicator of delayed diagnosis and a proxy for the effectiveness of local leprosy surveillance program. We also analyzed some relevant factors that influence spatial variability in the observed mean incidence rate in the Brazilian microregions, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic factors and how they affect the levels of underreporting. We corrected leprosy incidence rates for each Brazilian microregion and estimated that, on average, 33,252 (9.6%) new leprosy cases went unreported in the country between 2007 to 2015, with this proportion varying from 8.4% to 14.1% across the Brazilian States. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The magnitude and distribution of leprosy underreporting were adequately explained by a model using Grade 2 disability as a marker for the ability of the system to detect new missing cases. The percentage of missed cases was significant, and efforts are warranted to improve leprosy case detection. Our estimates in Brazilian microregions can be used to guide effective interventions, efficient resource allocation, and target actions to mitigate transmission.

Human Genetic Susceptibility of Leprosy Recurrence.

Host genetic susceptibility to leprosy has been intensively investigated over the last decades; however, there are no studies on the role of genetic variants in disease recurrence. A previous initiative identified three recurrent cases of leprosy for which none of the M. leprae strains, as obtained in the first and the second diagnosis, had any known genomic variants associated to resistance to Multidrug therapy; in addition, whole genome sequencing indicated that the same M. leprae was causing two out of the three recurrences. Thus, these individuals were suspected of being particularly susceptible to M. leprae infection, either as relapse or reinfection. To verify this hypothesis, 19 genetic markers distributed across 11 loci (14 genes) classically associated with leprosy were genotyped in the recurrent and in three matching non-recurrent leprosy cases. An enrichment of risk alleles was observed in the recurrent cases, suggesting the existence of a particularly high susceptibility genetic profile among leprosy patients predisposing to disease recurrence.

Mycobacterium leprae-Specific Antibodies in Multibacillary Leprosy Patients Decrease During and After Treatment With Either the Regular 12 Doses Multidrug Therapy (MDT) or the Uniform 6 Doses MDT.

Leprosy serology reflects the bacillary load of patients and multidrug therapy (MDT) reduces Mycobacterium leprae-specific antibody titers of multibacillary (MB) patients. The Clinical Trial for Uniform Multidrug Therapy Regimen for Leprosy Patients in Brazil (U-MDT/CT-BR) compared outcomes of regular 12 doses MDT/R-MDT and the uniform 6 doses MDT/U-MDT for MB leprosy, both of regimens including rifampicin, clofazimine, and dapsone. This study investigated the impact of R-MDT and U-MDT and the kinetic of antibody responses to M. leprae-specific antigens in MB patients from the U-MDT/CT-BR. We tested 3,400 serum samples from 263 MB patients (R-MDT:121; U-MDT:142) recruited at two Brazilian reference centers (Dona Libânia, Fortaleza, Ceará; Alfredo da Matta Foundation, Manaus, Amazonas). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays with three M. leprae antigens [NT-P-BSA: trisaccharide-phenyl of phenollic glycolipid-I antigen (PGL-I); LID-1: Leprosy Infectious Disease Research Institute Diagnostic 1 di-fusion recombinant protein; and ND-O-LID: fusion complex of disaccharide-octyl of PGL-I and LID-1] were performed using around 13 samples per patient. Samples were collected at baseline/M0, during MDT (R-MDT:M1-M12 months, U-MDT:M1-M6 months) and after MDT discontinuation (first, second year). Statistical significance was assessed by the Mann-Whitney U test for comparison between groups (p values < 0.05). Mixed effect multilevel regression analyses were used to investigate intraindividual serological changes overtime. In R-MDT and U-MDT groups, males predominated, median age was 41 and 40.5 years, most patients were borderline lepromatous and lepromatous leprosy (R-MDT:88%, U-MDT: 90%). The bacilloscopic index at diagnosis was similar (medians: 3.6 in the R-MDT and 3.8 in the U-MDT group). In R-MDT and U-MDT groups, a significant decline in anti-PGL-I positivity was observed from M0 to M5 (p = 0.035, p = 0.04, respectively), from M6 to M12 and at the first and second year posttreatment (p < 0.05). Anti-LID-1 antibodies declined from M0 to M6 (p = 0.024), M7 to M12 in the R-MDT; from M0 to M4 (p = 0.003), M5 to M12 in the U-MDT and posttreatment in both groups (p > 0.0001). Anti-ND-O-LID antibodies decreased during and after treatment in both groups, similarly to anti-PGL-I antibodies. Intraindividual serology results in R-MDT and U-MDT patients showed that the difference in serology decay to all three antigens was dependent upon time only. Our serology findings in MB leprosy show that regardless of the duration of the U-MDT and R-MDT, both of them reduce M. leprae-specific antibodies during and after treatment. In leprosy, antibody levels are considered a surrogate marker of the bacillary load; therefore, our serological results suggest that shorter U-MDT is also effective in reducing the patients' bacillary burden similarly to R-MDT. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00669643.

Whole genome sequencing distinguishes between relapse and reinfection in recurrent leprosy cases.

BACKGROUND: Since leprosy is both treated and controlled by multidrug therapy (MDT) it is important to monitor recurrent cases for drug resistance and to distinguish between relapse and reinfection as a means of assessing therapeutic efficacy. All three objectives can be reached with single nucleotide resolution using next generation sequencing and bioinformatics analysis of Mycobacterium leprae DNA present in human skin. METHODOLOGY: DNA was isolated by means of optimized extraction and enrichment methods from samples from three recurrent cases in leprosy patients participating in an open-label, randomized, controlled clinical trial of uniform MDT in Brazil (U-MDT/CT-BR). Genome-wide sequencing of M. leprae was performed and the resultant sequence assemblies analyzed in silico. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In all three cases, no mutations responsible for resistance to rifampicin, dapsone and ofloxacin were found, thus eliminating drug resistance as a possible cause of disease recurrence. However, sequence differences were detected between the strains from the first and second disease episodes in all three patients. In one case, clear evidence was obtained for reinfection with an unrelated strain whereas in the other two cases, relapse appeared more probable. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first report of using M. leprae whole genome sequencing to reveal that treated and cured leprosy patients who remain in endemic areas can be reinfected by another strain. Next generation sequencing can be applied reliably to M. leprae DNA extracted from biopsies to discriminate between cases of relapse and reinfection, thereby providing a powerful tool for evaluating different outcomes of therapeutic regimens and for following disease transmission.

Leprosy among patient contacts: a multilevel study of risk factors.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors associated with developing leprosy among the contacts of newly-diagnosed leprosy patients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 6,158 contacts and 1,201 leprosy patients of the cohort who were diagnosed and treated at the Leprosy Laboratory of Fiocruz from 1987 to 2007 were included. The contact variables analyzed were sex; age; educational and income levels; blood relationship, if any, to the index case; household or non-household relationship; length of time of close association with the index case; receipt of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BGG) vaccine and presence of BCG scar. Index cases variables included sex, age, educational level, family size, bacillary load, and disability grade. Multilevel logistic regression with random intercept was applied. Among the co-prevalent cases, the leprosy-related variables that remained associated with leprosy included type of household contact, [odds ratio (OR) = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.73] and consanguinity with the index case, (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.42-2.51). With respect to the index case variables, the factors associated with leprosy among contacts included up to 4 years of schooling and 4 to 10 years of schooling (OR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.54-4.79 and 2.40, 95% CI: 1.30-4.42, respectively) and bacillary load, which increased the chance of leprosy among multibacillary contacts for those with a bacillary index of one to three and greater than three (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.19-2.17 and OR: 4.07-95% CI: 2.73, 6.09), respectively. Among incident cases, household exposure was associated with leprosy (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.29-2.98), compared with non-household exposure. Among the index case risk factors, an elevated bacillary load was the only variable associated with leprosy in the contacts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Biological and social factors appear to be associated with leprosy among co-prevalent cases, whereas the factors related to the infectious load and proximity with the index case were associated with leprosy that appeared in the incident cases during follow-up.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in the Amazon region of Brazil.

To detect areas with increased case-detection rates, we used spatial scan statistics to identify 5 of 10 clusters of leprosy in the Amazon region of Brazil. Despite increasing economic development, population growth, and road infrastructure, leprosy is endemic to this region, which is a source of case exportation to other parts of Brazil.

Trend of case detection and leprosy elimination in Brazil.

Only six countries did not meet the leprosy elimination target during 2005, amongst them Brazil. In 2006, the Brazilian Ministry of Health announced a reduction of the detection rate of 24% or 10 900 cases from 2004 to 2005. A negative binomial parabolic regression model was adjusted to the detection rate historical series from 1980 to 2004, in order to predict the 2005 detection rate and its 95% confidence interval. This analysis showed that the number of new leprosy cases for 2005 could not be predicted from the previous behaviour of the data what calls for an epidemiological or operational explanation hypothesis. The hypothesis that this drop in detected case number is due to operational change, as a reduction in diagnosis or a modification in the reporting routine, is more likely. Recent change in prevalence case definition turned the prevalence ratio a function of only one variable, the detection rate, as the duration of the diagnosed disease became fixed. In the early nineties, based on epidemiological data evaluation, the BMoH recognized the impossibility of reaching the elimination goal, but it committed to seek leprosy control. This position changed after some years. Leprosy Elimination is a strategy supported by the national and international public opinion. As a one for all recipe, it may cause unwanted effects for it is not flexible enough to deal with different epidemiological behaviours and public health traditions.